Macédoine : la stabilté sans la croissance

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Tout en étant parvenue à juguler son inflation, la Macédoine demeure engluée dans une phase de transition marquée par une croissance extrêmement lente, soulignent Vladimir Gligorov et Silvana Mojsovska dans une étude publiée par l’Institut viennois des études économiques internationales (wiiw).  La prudence des responsables économiques macédoniens n’a donc guère porté ses fruits, le chômage (notamment) se maintenant à des niveaux très élevés. Les choix macroéconomiques effectués en 1994 – et strictement mis en oeuvre depuis – ont instauré un contexte favorable à la stabilité, mais certainement pas à la croissance : en décidant d’ancrer sa monnaie au mark allemand, puis à l’euro, la Macédoine s’est condamnée à maintenir une politique de taux d’intérêts élevés, véritable frein au développement économique.

The alternative economic policy starts from the following observations: public expenditures are quite low by comparative standards, public and foreign debts are moderate, and both the monetary and fiscal policies are restrictive though actual growth is well beyond potential growth. Also, the reforms ahead will lead to increased competition and liberalization. Those observations suggest the following set of policy changes: Monetary policy should become more active. The way to do that is to move away from using the fixed peg as an anchor and with a view to adopting inflation targeting. The aim would be to retain price stability at a lower level of interest rates. Public expenditures should be increased to achieve development goals. Macedonia needs investments in infrastructure and in communal services. As a transit and a potential tourist country, these investments seem reasonable. In addition, investments in human capital, particularly in education at all levels, should be increased. Primary education is still a problem in some regions and that should be a priority. Institutional reforms should be pursued aggressively and rapidly. That will also shorten the time required for EU integration. The priorities are well known especially when it comes to the strengthening of the rule of law. 

The report has two parts. In the first, a comparative approach is employed in order to draw some conclusions from the experience of transitions in general. In the second part, a more detailed description of Macedonia¿s economic development together with a discussion of various policies is to be found. 

To purchase and read the report in full, visit the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw) website.

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