D’après un article de Grenville Byford, paru dans le numéro d’automne 2007 de Europe’s World, le parti turc de l’AKP est généralement décrit par la presse occidentale comme « islamiste » et ses opposants militaires comme « laïque ». Pourtant, selon lui, cela ne signifie pas que l’AKP est en mauvais terme avec l’Occident, bien au contraire.
The author dismisses the idea raised by President Bush that once the « war against terrorism » is won, the West’s relationship with Muslims will restructure. For Byford, the challenge rather consists of persuading the world’s Muslims that they can be « rich, free and yet remain Muslim ».
Turkey could be the concrete example of such an outcome, outlines the author. If Turkey succeeds in becoming a democracy, it will have an influence not only on the Muslim world, but also around the Black Sea, southern Russia, the Caspian Basin and parts of Central Asia, argues the author.
However, if Turkey remains unreformed, it will have the opposite effect, he adds.
The author comments on the general election in June, which he describes as « a triumph » for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). However, the « real question » is whether the losers of these elections – the politicians, the generals and the secular elite – understand their loss, he believes.
The military made two distinct attempts to influence Turkey’s election, recalls the author:
- The first attempt was to raise the spectre of a « threat to secularism » in their « coup-threatening e-memorandum » in late April.
- The second was to spread the idea that Erdogan was « too soft on terror and cringes before America ».
The main opposition party, the Kemalist CHP, does not « contemplate resignation and sharp knives » and will try to engage the sympathy of the West, arguing that protecting democracy from « Islamism » requires non-democratic « checks and balances » such as the generals’ role as « guardians of the republic », says the author.
Nevertheless, the West is more likely to consider the Kemalists to be « incompetent », despite the fact that they are « democratic ».
According to the author, there is an underlying deal underwriting US support to the AKP party. This deal would be the Turkish acceptance of independence for northern Iraq in exchange for Barzani, the Kurdish leader, closing the border to the PKK, the Kurdish separatist party, and controlling it internally.
The other role that the US should be playing is helping to ease Turkey’s military out of politics, he adds.
Finally, even though the AKP party is often described as « Islamic », its major characteristic is its full acceptance of free market capitalism « and all it implies ».
As the AKP is much more of a reforming party than a conservative one, what Turkey’s democracy still needs is an opposition « equally wedded to the future », concludes the author.