Cette note du European Policy Centre analyse l’état actuel des relations entre l’Union européenne et la Chine, et formule plusieurs recommandations destinées à permettre un approfondissement du dialogue entre Pékin et Bruxelles.
Introduction
There is a global fascination with China, mainly because of its high economic growth rates over recent decades and its increasing role on the world stage.
China is now playing a more confident and assertive role at the United Nations, World Trade Organization and other international bodies. It routinely sends high-level trade missions to all continents and has started to promote its culture abroad, aware of the need to advance its soft power. There is also huge interest in how the country with the world’s largest population can transform itself into a modern economy, while retaining its current single-party political system. China’s leaders appear rational, calculating and conscious of both China’s strengths and weaknesses. However, the absence of western-style democracy and, therefore, transparency makes its difficult to understand the driving forces and political interests that guide China.
Given China’s history, it is natural to assume that it would like to be regarded as the most important power in Asia, but this aim could conflict with the aims of other powers, including the US, Japan and India. Recently, due to China’s rapid economic growth – and the decade-long Japanese economic recession – many Asians have begun to take Chinese economic and political leadership in Asia for granted. This is unlikely to change unless Japan can return to sustainable economic growth rates, enabling Tokyo to exert economic and political leadership in the region.1 Unlike Japan, the Chinese leadership has always emphasised that China is an « Asian nation » (as opposed to belonging to the « West »), thus securing widespread support in the region. Consequently, China never had to « return » to Asia like Japan did in the 1990s.
Over the past decade, the EU and China have become two of the most important global actors, with each steadily increasing its influence on the world stage. The European Security Strategy (ESS) agreed by the European Council in December 2003 proposed that the Union should look to develop strategic partnerships with China, Japan, Canada and India, as well as with all those who shared the EU’s values and goals. The ESS also called for an effective and balanced partnership with the United States and described the transatlantic relationship as « irreplaceable ». Russia was also mentioned as another strategic partner, subject to respect for common values.
The inclusion of China as a potential strategic partner was a recognition by the EU of the growing importance of China and, in particular, the prospect of the two actors working together in several important policy areas such as trade, energy, the environment and global governance. The Union is now China’s main trading partner and for the EU, China ranks second to the US.
The objective of this paper is to put the EU-China relationship into historical perspective, analyse its workings and make recommendations for the establishment of the intended strategic partnership. It will also consider how the relationship might develop over the next decade.
There are many unknowns, not least with regard to internal events in China, but the thrust of the paper is that both the EU and China will be playing even more important roles on the world stage by 2015. The EU is set to enlarge further while strengthening its institutional structures. China is set to maintain its extraordinary growth record and has its eyes firmly set on the 2008 Beijing Olympics and the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai. It hopes to demonstrate its continuing « peaceful rise » through the successful holding of these two showcase events.
To read the paper in full, visit the European Policy Centre website.