Dans le cadre du débat portant sur une
éventuelle adhésion de la Turquie à l’UE, il est trop
rarement souligné que l’entrée en vigueur de clauses de sauvegarde
permanentes ne permettra pas à l’UE d’instaurer une politique
d’immigration zéro, écrivent Refik
Erzan, Umut Kuzubas
et Nilufer Yildiz dans une note publiée
par le Centre for European Policy Studies.
The purpose of this study is to estimate the eventual
immigration from Turkey to the EU when Turkey becomes a full member
and restrictions on labour mobility are removed. Alternative
methods and scenarios are scrutinized in forecasting probable
magnitudes for the period 2004 to 2030. The analyses are
essentially based on the experience of countries that joined the
EU. The estimation methods are those used in recent studies that
analyze the membership consequences of the Central and East
European countries. Special attention was paid to the experience of
the southern “cohesion” countries – Greece, Portugal and Spain.
Finally, forecasts were also made based primarily on the Turkish
emigration record.
Occasionally, sensational news articles on the scary magnitude
of potential migrants from Turkey take the headlines in EU media.
Careless interpretation of casual opinion polls can put the number
up to 25% of a population of about 70 million. Magnitudes that
emerge from serious research work are a fraction of that. The
survey of this literature undertaken by the 2004 “Impact Study”
(Issues Arising from Turkey’s Membership Perspective) of the EU
Commission has reported that forecasts of immigration from Turkey
to the EU-15 until 2030 range between 0.5 and 4.4 million, assuming
free mobility of labour in about a dozen years from now. The Impact
Study also underlines that to arrive at the higher end estimates
(about 4 million), the studies have to torture the data and the
methodology.
As a result of the literature survey that we have undertaken in
the framework of this study and our contacts with the relevant
research centres in the EU (see the references), we have not come
across any net migration forecasts from Turkey to the EU that
exceeds the probable magnitudes reported in the Impact
Study.
Analytical studies follow two alternative methods in making
immigration forecasts. The first one is statistical inferences
based on scientifically designed surveys. The second one is
econometric methods. The latter draws on the pre and post EU
membership experiences of emigration countries. Quantifiable
determinants of immigration – pull and push factors – are
identified and their joint impact on immigration is estimated.
These estimates are then used to forecast eventual migration from
“to be” members.
Our simulation results for net migration from Turkey to EU-15 in
the period 2004-30 is between 1 and 2.1 million, foreseeing a
successful accession period with high growth and free labour
mobility starting 2015 – a rather optimistic assumption to explore
the upper bound of the immigration potential. On the other hand, if
Turkey’s membership process is endangered and high growth cannot be
sustained, 2.7 million people may be penetrating the EU-15 despite
the prevailing strict restrictions on labour mobility.
Reference Group: 1967-2001 Immigration from All
Europe
At the first stage of analysis, we followed the method used in
the EU Commission report by Brücker, Alvarez-Plata and Siliverstovs
(2003) in estimating potential migration from Central and Eastern
Europe. Using an econometric model, the study estimates migrant
stocks in Germany originating from 19 source countries (Austria,
Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Holland, Iceland,
Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland,
Spain, Turkey, UK, and (former) Yugoslavia). Germany was chosen as
the host country because of the size of the migrant communities in
this country and the availability of robust time series data dating
back to 1967.