Trois jours après le deuxième tour de
l’élection présidentielle ukrainienne, et alors
que le risque d’une confrontation entre manifestants et
forces de sécurité apparaît bien
réel,
Wojciech Sarysz-Wolski
se penche sur les facteurs à l’origine de la
situation actuelle et envisage quelles pourraient
être les réponses apportées par
l’UE. Cet article a été publié par
le
European Policy Centre
.
Introduction
On 21 November Ukraine held run-off
Presidential elections between current Prime
Minister Viktor Yanukovych, representing the
present ruling elite, and Viktor Yushchenko,
the leader of “Our Ukraine,” the
largest opposition block. The Ukrainian Central
Election Commission reported on the 23 November
that with 99.48% percent of the vote counted,
Mr. Yanukovych had garnered 49.39% percent of
the vote, while Mr. Yushchenko’s trailed
him at 46.69%. The official numbers favouring
Yanukovych are mainly the results of the
east-Ukrainian voting constituencies, like
Donetsk, which claimed a turnout of 96%, with
all votes going to the current premier.
Meanwhile, the two independent exit polls show
a Yushchenko victory: the opposition candidate
leads Prime Minister Yanukovych by 12% in one
(54% to 43%) and 3% in the other (49.7% to
46.7%).
Representatives of the international
community, including election observers from
the Organisation for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE) have criticized this second
round of elections as failing to meet
democratic standards. Only Russian President
Vladimir Putin seems to disagree. As well as
the objections voiced by foreign observers, the
protests in the country – particularly in
the capital Kiev – are growing ever more
vocal and observers fear civil unrest might be
looming.
The Yushchenko camp has rejected the
official figures given by the Central Election
Commission and has pointed to reports of
electoral fraud. Already seven local
municipalities, including Lviv and Kiev have
refused to accept Mr. Yanukovych’s alleged
victory and have proclaimed the opposition
leader as the new president. At the same time,
street rallies in almost all the major cities
across the country are gathering momentum. The
biggest protest, which began at the Kiev’s
Independence Square on the evening of the
election, has turned into a demonstration of
over two hundred thousand people. With the
tensions mounting, and a possible standoff with
security forces possible, the country’s
difficulties in deciding its identity and its
future orientation become all the more
clear.
Political Scene
Similar to most of the newly independent
countries that arose out of the ruins of the
USSR, the Ukrainian political sphere is highly
interlinked with the business circles. The
privatisation processes that began in the
1990’s have made these two groups
dependent on one another to the extent that
they are almost undistinguishable.
The political and business power in Ukraine
lies in hands of three main oligarchic groups.
These are the so-called Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk
and Kiev clans. Current President Leonid Kuchma
is a member of the Dnipropetrovsk group. The
Donetsk group is based on the Donbas’
Industrial Group (ISD), a huge holding
controlling hundreds of heavy industry
companies in eastern Ukraine, which is
currently expanding its foothold in the
EU-based businesses. Prime Minister Yanukovych
is assumed to be a member of the Donetsk group.
As for the Kiev clan, Viktor Medvedchuk –
the head of the presidential administration and
the leader of Social Democratic Party of
Ukraine-united (SDPU-o), plays an important
role in it. He is perceived to be one of the
most important representatives of Russian
interests in Ukraine and controls a large
segment of the media.
The parliamentary support for the government
consists of highly heterogeneous groups
representing various business, political and
regional interests that are held together only
by their joint fear of the opposition forces.
The latter managed to present itself as a
united front, with the radical opposition
Yuliya Tymoshenko’s Bloc supporting Mr.
Yushchenko’s candidature for Presidency.
His own bloc – currently the biggest
single group in the Parliamentary Assembly –
represents a coalition of ten centre-right
parties, which he managed to rally around him
in 2002. Among the post-Soviet new independent
states, Ukraine has one of the most vibrant
opposition forces, with solid internal
discipline, good organization and financial
backing. Although far from being a model
democracy, Ukraine is nevertheless one of the
few places east of the EU in which voters
seemingly have a real political alternative and
where civil society plays an important
role.
Read the full article on the European Policy Centre website
.