Dans cet article, Donald Rayfield étudie les relations Russie-Géorgie suite à l’incident récent – un avion russe avait violé l’espace aérien de la Géorgie en août 2007 – qui a renforcé les tensions entre les deux Etats. Les liens entre ces deux pays sont historiquement très étroits mais la perspective d’une rupture prochaine devient impossible à ignorer.
The author examines the political circumstances through both Russian and Georgian eyes. Tensions seem to be based on perceptions and illusions rather than realities. Russian illusions on Georgia include beliefs without basis, he claims – including the idea that Georgians have enjoyed a privileged position under Soviet rule and that Moscow can effectively direct Tbilisi’s political choices.
According to the author, the single overriding Georgian illusion that has persisted since the crusades is that Russia is the northern protector – the great Christian kingdom of the north – while history teaches the opposite.
Today, through a combination of choice and circumstances Georgia’s economy is reorientating itself to the West, notes the author. One example of this trend is that Georgia’s exports to Russia have declined by over half in 2007.
However, the break with Russia has its costs, says the author. The half a million Georgian workers in Russia are subject to increasing pressure from the authorities to prevent them from trading, getting an education or sending money home, he notes.
Moreover, the territorial disputes between the two countries are painful for Georgia and no Georgian politicians really foster any hope of recovering their land, either by diplomatic or military means.
Still, no Georgian politician would take a decision without taking into account what the Russian reaction would be, claims the paper.
In this difficult environment, the Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili can only try to make Georgia a safer, freer and more prosperous country to live in – thus encouraging Western involvement and sympathy – despite there being a long way still to go, concludes the paper.